EastFruitPlatform 7moon26In recent years, the global fruit and vegetable industry has undergone the most profound structural transformation in decades. The increasingly frequent and severe climate fluctuations are completely rewriting the competitive landscape, capital flow, and long-term profitability of the global fresh agricultural products industry.
All the data intuitively confirms the severe challenges faced by the industry. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations（FAO）The latest report shows that,1991Year to Year2023Over the years, various natural disasters have caused cumulative economic losses to global agriculture3.26Trillion dollars. According to agricultural information agenciesAgricultura.itData shows that the global fruit and vegetable industry experienced significant production losses during the same period28Billions of tons.
This industry analysis is conducted by an international agricultural business analystEastFruitKaterina, Head of International Fruit and Vegetable Platform·Zvileva（Kateryna Zvierieva）She provided an in-depth interpretation of the latest agricultural natural disaster damage assessment report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
Zvileva said:“Climate impact has become a normalized core factor affecting investment decisions in the entire fruit and vegetable industry chain, directly influencing the industry's profitability, investment attractiveness, and long-term core competitiveness.”
The pressure faced by the European fruit and vegetable industry is particularly prominent. The latest analysis data from the European Investment Bank shows that extreme weather causes approximately280An economic loss of billions of euros, accounting for the total output value of the EU's breeding industry6%According to the most severe climate scenario, to2050Annual climate disaster losses in EU agriculture may increase further66%。
“Compared to traditional agricultural categories such as grains and oilseeds, the climate risk exposure of the fruit and vegetable industry is much higher.”Zvileva added,“The window period for fruit and vegetable production and harvesting is extremely short, and it belongs to labor-intensive industries. The appearance and quality of products have strict market standards, and it highly relies on efficient and fast logistics systems. Even short-term extreme weather can directly cause economic losses.”
Profit shrinkage replaces production reduction, becoming the biggest threat to the industry
At present, most producers still focus on reducing production when assessing climate risks, but this assessment method is outdated. At present, the continuous shrinkage of profit margins is the more severe challenge facing the fruit and vegetable industry.
Even if the harvest yield of fruits and vegetables remains stable, the rise in various climate adaptation costs will quickly compress profits. The increase in investment in irrigation equipment, hail prevention systems, agricultural insurance, and cold chain warehousing, coupled with inefficient manual management and post harvest losses, continues to erode the industry's profit margins.
This trend is particularly evident in southern Europe.
Zvileva explained that:“Frequent heatwaves and water shortages in countries such as Italy, Spain, and Greece continue to drive up the production costs of berries, citrus fruits, stone fruits, and various vegetables. Taking the cherry industry as an example, even if growers endure extreme weather and achieve standard yields, a hailstorm before harvesting, combined with rising irrigation costs and declining fruit quality, can completely destroy the entire season's profits.”
She further pointed out that:“Nowadays, cherry, berry, and citrus growers can no longer rely on stable yields to ensure stable profits. A single hail disaster on the eve of harvesting can benefit businesses15%to18%The pre tax profit margin plummeted to within a few days3%to5%。”
The risk assessment logic of leading companies in the industry has changed accordingly: output is still important, butProfit resilienceIt has become a more core consideration indicator.
Water resources have risen to become the core strategic resource for fruit and vegetable production
The most crucial change in this round of structural transformation of the global fruit and vegetable industry is undoubtedly the upgrading of the strategic position of water resources.
The latest assessment data from the European Environment Agency shows that drought is the most significant climate disaster in European agriculture, contributing to54%Agricultural losses; The proportion of losses caused by rainstorm, frost and hail is21%、16%and9%。
The impact of drought continues to intensify globally. Organisation for Economic Co operation and Development（OECD）Data shows that the global land area affected by drought is1900Since the beginning of the year, it has doubled, only2025In the year, the world is approaching30%The land is experiencing dry weather.
The production of fruits and vegetables is highly dependent on water resources. Spain, Italy, Morocco, Egypt, Türkiye, Uzbekistan and other core production areas are hit by drought. In these countries, the ability to obtain water resources directly determines the four core elements: the survival value of orchards and production systems, the selection of crop planting categories, the level of production costs, and the long-term profitability of the industry.
Zvileva emphasized based on data from the European Environment Agency that water resources have become a core strategic resource for the fruit and vegetable industry.“Since drought has caused over half of Europe's agricultural losses, water resources will inevitably become one of the most critical strategic resources for fruit and vegetable production.”
She predicts that this trend will continue to strengthen:“to2030In the future, stable and reliable irrigation conditions will have a greater impact on industrial competitiveness than arable land resources. The industry will form a new competitive landscape, and producers with stable water resource guarantees will have stronger pricing power and long-term operational stability.”
Climate fluctuations reshape the global fruit and vegetable industry landscape
The impact of climate fluctuations on various production areas around the world is not equal, but accelerates the structural restructuring of the competitiveness of the global fruit and vegetable industry. Some production areas continue to highlight their advantages, while others continue to weaken their competitiveness due to water scarcity, rising costs, and intensified climate risks.
Industry winner: a production area that combines climate resilience, infrastructure advantages, and cost advantages
Unlike the rapidly increasing pressure in southern European production areas, multiple emerging production areas consolidate their market position with three core advantages: strong climate adaptability, competitive production costs, and complete export supporting infrastructure. Among them, the rise of Morocco and Egypt is the most typical.
Based on the practical experience of agricultural projects in the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, and Central Asia by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Zvileva stated that this trend of industrial transfer has become increasingly significant in the past five years.
“In the past five years, the competitiveness of the fruit and vegetable industry in Morocco and Egypt has significantly improved. Their advantages are no longer limited to low-cost production, but are also reflected in production efficiency, infrastructure support, and global export layout.”She said. Currently, global capital is continuing to move towards“Efficient production+Strong climate resilience”Gathering high-quality production areas.
Morocco: Core Growth Pole for Mediterranean Fruit and Vegetable Exports
Morocco's market position in the berry, tomato, and citrus categories continues to rise, with core competitive advantages including proximity to the EU core consumer market, low labor costs, a mature export-oriented system, and continued investment in irrigation facilities and facility agriculture.
Zvileva evaluates it as a benchmark for the growth of the fruit and vegetable industry in the Mediterranean region:“The export volume of fresh fruits and vegetables from Morocco to Europe has steadily increased, with tomato and blueberry categories showing particularly outstanding performance. The country has established the most efficient export-oriented fruit and vegetable industry system in the Mediterranean region, with strategic investments in irrigation, facility cultivation, and logistics, continuously consolidating its market competitiveness.”
At the same time, she reminded that Morocco's long-term competitiveness will highly rely on water resource utilization efficiency:“Even these high-quality export producing areas are facing increasingly severe water resource pressure. The ultimate winners in the future industry will inevitably be those entities that continue to lead the market in water resource utilization efficiency.”
Egypt: The backbone of global fruit and vegetable exports
Egypt's global market share in citrus, onion, sweet potato, frozen vegetables and other categories continues to increase. With large-scale production, export-oriented industrial layout, and highly competitive production costs, it has become one of the top citrus exporting countries in the world, and its comprehensive fruit and vegetable export strength is steadily growing.
Uzbekistan: Emerging dark horse in Central Asian fruit and vegetable exports
Uzbekistan has become the most dynamic fruit and vegetable production area in Central Asia, with its export advantages in cherry, fresh grape, stone fruit, vegetable and other categories continuing to expand. Its core advantages include low-cost labor, sufficient production potential, and continuously improving cold chain warehousing and logistics support.
Zvileva said:“The competitiveness of Uzbekistan's export-oriented fruit and vegetable industry continues to improve, and investment in cold chain, warehouse, and logistics facilities has significantly expanded its market coverage and export potential.”
High risk production areas: Southern European industrial competitiveness continues to be under pressure
At the same time, multiple traditional fruit and vegetable production areas are facing structural development difficulties. The core problem is not insufficient production capacity, but the disappearance of cost advantages and continuous decline in operational efficiency under climate fluctuations.
Southern Spain: As a core fruit and vegetable production area in Europe, the southern region of Spain frequently experiences droughts and limited irrigation quotas, putting significant pressure on the citrus, vegetable, and berry industries. At present, the local fruit and vegetable production remains high, but the profit margin of enterprises is continuously compressed.
Southern Italy: Heat waves, droughts, and unstable climate continue to drive up production costs for citrus, vegetables, and stone fruits. Most categories have stable yields, but the economic benefits of the industry are gradually weakening.
Greece: Frequent droughts and high temperatures, coupled with scattered production patterns and weak capital of small and medium-sized farmers, have resulted in extremely poor risk resistance in the Greek fruit and vegetable industry.
Zvileva's analysis pointed out that the fruit and vegetable industry in southern Europe has entered a competitive downturn cycle:“Water scarcity, rising agricultural insurance prices, and frequent climate risks continue to drive up production costs and squeeze industry profits, gradually eroding the traditional cost advantage of Southern Europe.”
The industry is divided into two major business models, and the bipolar pattern is solidified
Zvileva emphasized that climate fluctuations are reshaping the industry ecosystem, causing global fruit and vegetable producers to completely differentiate into two completely different business models.
Mode 1: Resilient Production Body
This type of enterprise has a complete production risk resistance system: it has stable irrigation water sources, hail prevention equipment, facility planting greenhouses, professional warehousing facilities, and mature post harvest treatment systems. At the same time, it has diversified export channels, which can effectively resist climate impacts and maintain stable profit margins.
Mode 2: Fragile Production Entities
These types of enterprises generally have problems such as insufficient irrigation facilities, weak infrastructure support, narrow financing channels, and single sales channels, resulting in extremely poor business resilience. Extreme weather disasters in a single year may directly lead to a sharp decline in corporate profits and a crisis in operations.
Industry capital has also focused on the field of risk resistant technology. The areas with the highest investment heat currently include precision irrigation technology, facility agriculture planting, artificial intelligence crop prediction systems, agricultural robots, intelligent sorting and grading equipment, and modern post harvest preservation treatment technology. These technologies can effectively enhance the industry's climate resilience and bring stable investment returns.
